1st Round League Cup Betting Tips 2012 / 13

Under a new name, which we will not mention (as other credit card suppliers are available) kicks off this Saturday. It appears as though a few of the teams have been able to rearrange their games, presumably to optimise gate receipts.

At the time of going to press, the best odds for the overall winner is thus:

Man City – 13/2
Chelsea
Man U
Arsenal
Liverpool – All 9/1

Enough of that, all of those teams will not appear until round three anyway, so there is little point in speculating anything about who might win it.

Lets look at the Weekend fixtures from the cup, especially considering BTTS. The league cup can be a minefield for punters, especially in the early rounds, before team news is known. Punters should keep an eye out for team news, although more recent seasons have seen the biggest clubs compete to win it.

Home Draw Away
Bury (97/29) v (43/15) Middlesbrough (11/13)
Carlisle (7/10) v (37/12) Accrington (9/2)
Wolverhampton (2/5) v (59/14) Aldershot (39/4)
Rochdale (52/21) v (13/5) Barnsley (5/4)
Notts Co (4/5) v (32/11) Bradford (65/16)
Walsall (15/8) v (17/7) Brentford (28/17)
Sheffield Utd (4/7) v (53/15) Burton (44/7)
Crewe (11/8) v (33/13) Hartlepool (40/17)
Cheltenham (12/5) v (44/17) MK Dons (6/5)
Hull (4/6) v (41/13) Rotherham (9/2)
Leeds (8/13) v (7/2) Shrewsbury (11/2)
Watford (3/5) v (57/17) Wycombe (65/11)
Doncaster (11/13) v (47/17) York (4)
Blackpool (4/9) v (81/19) Morecambe (95/12)

Courtesy of: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup

Looking at the odds, a few of those matches immediately look uninspiring, for example, York and Leeds matches. We will be looking at BTTS for the purposes of the above matches and the odds are thus:

Sheffield Utd v Burton Yes (10/11) No (1)
Wolverhampton v Aldershot Yes (1) No (10/11)
Carlisle v Accrington Yes (10/11) No (10/9)
Watford v Wycombe Yes (5/6) No (11/10)
Notts Co v Bradford Yes (4/5) No (15/13)
Cheltenham v MK Dons Yes (4/5) No (5/4)
Crewe v Hartlepool Yes (7/10) No (5/4)
Walsall v Brentford Yes (7/10) No (5/4)
Bury v Middlesbrough Yes (5/6) No (6/5)
Doncaster v York Yes (5/6) No (6/5)
Hull v Rotherham Yes (5/6) No (6/5)
Leeds v Shrewsbury Yes (5/6) No (6/5)
Rochdale v Barnsley Yes (4/5) No (6/5)

Courtesy of oddschecker:

As you can see above bookies are taking caution on how the games may go. All but one game goes odds on, on both teams scoring. Realistically, we think a good 40% of these matches will not achieve the YES outcome.

Games we think will achieve a YES outcome:

Watford/Wycombe – Watford Averaged over a goal a game scored and similar on conceding last season. They will be playing a Wycombe side that scored nearly 1.5 per game and leaked nearly 2 a game in last terms domestic season. We can see goals in this tie, with a motivated Wycombe club seeking promotion and a Watford side aiming for the play offs, one would presume. Their price of 5/6 at Coral represents excellent value

Crewe/Hartlepool – Newly promoted Crewe will be looking to make a good early impression in the heights of League one. They play Hartlepool whom themselves scored and conceding over a goal a game on average. Crewe themselves meet similar criteria making them as short as 13/20, but we have secured 7/10 for our treble. If a Mr. you know whom for Hartlepool scores, look out for a celebrating Jeff Stelling on Soccer Saturday!

Cheltenham/MK Dons – Best 4/5 at Bluesq to both score seems great value considering both teams pose attacking features and both teams won us a few quid in the previous season. MK Dons missed out in the play offs losing to eventual winners Huddersfield. MK averaged nearly 2 goals a game last season scored and over a goal conceded per game. Relegated Cheltenham had a similar record in reverse. Their goals per game tick our box, as well as the level they conceded. We think a rejuvenated Cheltenham will pose them as threats for the up coming season, whereas MK will be trying to make amends and be in the play offs at a minimum again next season.

The treble pays 5.51 at Blue Sq. Advised to back as singles at the strongest prices at all bookies.

Cheltenham/MK – 4/5 Bluesq
Crewe/Hartlepool – 7/10 Bluesq
Watford/Wycombe – 5/6 Coral

Best of luck!

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